Decisions made today will decide whether in the future the Polish economy will be a tiger or a laggard in this fast-paced world. Making decisions without a solid in-depth economic analysis may push Poland to the periphery of the developed world in the next 30-40 years. Preparation and analysis of various scenarios of Polish development within the project Low-carbon Poland 2050 have been carried out by two independent institutes: the Institute for Structural Research and the Institute for Sustainable Development.
The project Low-carbon Poland 2050 was inspired by the fact that most European countries have documents that set the trends for 2050, known as 2050 roadmaps. These documents contain in-depth economic analyses that politicians can use in making important policy decisions. In Poland, up to now, no such document has been created. The Institute for Structural Research and the Institute for Sustainable Development, in cooperation with the European Union and support from the Climate Foundation, undertook to prepare a Polish Roadmap 2050 – the point of departure was the target 80 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The idea of the project
The main idea of the project was to prepare an accurate representation of the costs and benefits of climate policy in Poland, to show ways to modernise Poland so that by 2050 it achieves the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent, as established in "Roadmap for the transition to a competitive low carbon economy by 2050". It is important to also shift the focus of public debate and public policy agenda in the direction of thinking in terms of modernisation based on innovation, efficiency and environmental friendliness. Under the project we present arguments for embedding climate policy in the wider modernisation agenda of the Polish economy.
Econometric model "Low-carbon Poland 2050"
The project, based on an econometric model especially dedicated to this project, shows different scenarios of modernisation of our economy. The scenarios were prepared for the energy sector, transport, construction, industrial and other sectors (waste management, agriculture, forestry). The assessment also concerned the technological potential to reduce emissions by 2050. Experts working on the project also conducted an analysis of cost-effectiveness and reduction potential of each technology at the microeconomic level. The project also presented alternative scenarios for reducing emissions by 2050, and their simulations.
The project is supported by the Forum of Experts, representatives of different sectors - government, science and education, industry, business, NGOs and the media. The aim is to create a forum to start a debate on what the implementation of low-carbon policy means for the Polish economy.