2050.pl - THE JOURNEY TO THE LOW-EMISSION FUTURE - SUMMARY

After over 20 years of the transition to the market economy and fostered by European integration, Poland can choose between two broad future paths. The first one retains the current status quo with respect to the reform agenda and delayed reaction to global trends. In this scenario unwillingness to undertake important structural reforms will make Poland follow the path of the South European countries and fall into the middle income trap. The alternative is a modernisation scenario, in which future development is based on three pillars: (1) high quality public institutions and legislation, (2) creativity and innovativeness and (3) resource and human resource efficiency. Reforms targeting these areas will improve Polish chances to reach high level of development and join the group of European and global economic leaders by 2050.

These three key modernisation goals are closely connected to the idea of the low-emission transition of the economy. Improving regulations and balancing short, medium and long term development policy will provide stable conditions for the development of low-emission technologies and will ensure that the negative externalities of the functioning of the economy will decrease.

Investments in the Polish innovative potential while providing incentives to tackle environmental challenges will lead to more eco-innovative solutions and ensure that the country will not only be a consumer, but first and foremost an inventor and producer of green technologies. Finally, improving the resource efficiency of the economy depends on the energy efficiency enhancement,. They will contribute to obtaining the higher level of energy security, and also the budgets of households and small and medium enterprises will gain additional means. The emergence of high quality green jobs may facilitate reaching this goal, mitigating macroeconomic disturbances and stimulating its growth.

Reports

THE INTRODUCTION TO THE REPORT

The decisions taken today determine whether in the future Poland will be an economic tiger or a straggler in a world which rushes ahead. If they are taken without robust and in-depth economic analysis, in 20-30 years Poland may be pushed to the peripheries of developed countries. Bearing this mind, the Low-Emission Poland 2050 Project was inspired by the observation that, in contrast to many European countries, Poland had no document  in place which would set out the direction of…

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Reports

Part V - THE CLIMATE FOR CLIMATE POLICY

In the Polish public debate there is now a clash between three views on the European climate policy: sceptics take action to reduce its importance, minimalists want to keep the policy in its present shape, while its supporters take efforts to ensure that more ambitious targets are set for the future. Almost all the important actors of public life (including political parties, the public administration and the majority of business representatives)  represent the first two of the…

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Reports

Part IV - THE ECONOMICS OF LOW-EMISSION MODERNISATION

In this part, we sum up the significance of the low-emission transformation for Poland’s modernisation in the coming forty years. Here, we try to deal with the misgivings presented by those who are sceptical about the shift from the coal orientation in our energy sector: its high costs for investors, its adverse impact on energy prices and costs of living, a threat for economic growth and the problem of energy security. In the light of the doubts voiced by opponents of climate…

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