After over 20 years of the transition to the market economy and fostered by European integration, Poland can choose between two broad future paths. The first one retains the current status quo with respect to the reform agenda and delayed reaction to global trends. In this scenario unwillingness to undertake important structural reforms will make Poland follow the path of the South European countries and fall into the middle income trap. The alternative is a modernisation scenario, in which future development is based on three pillars: (1) high quality public institutions and legislation, (2) creativity and innovativeness and (3) resource and human resource efficiency. Reforms targeting these areas will improve Polish chances to reach high level of development and join the group of European and global economic leaders by 2050.
These three key modernisation goals are closely connected to the idea of the low-emission transition of the economy. Improving regulations and balancing short, medium and long term development policy will provide stable conditions for the development of low-emission technologies and will ensure that the negative externalities of the functioning of the economy will decrease.
Investments in the Polish innovative potential while providing incentives to tackle environmental challenges will lead to more eco-innovative solutions and ensure that the country will not only be a consumer, but first and foremost an inventor and producer of green technologies. Finally, improving the resource efficiency of the economy depends on the energy efficiency enhancement,. They will contribute to obtaining the higher level of energy security, and also the budgets of households and small and medium enterprises will gain additional means. The emergence of high quality green jobs may facilitate reaching this goal, mitigating macroeconomic disturbances and stimulating its growth.